Looking at the cathode options specifically, IDTechEx notes that the past decade has seen the majority of the EV market outside of China relying on NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt oxide) and NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminum oxide) cathodes due to their high energy density. , which provides longer EVs.
These technologies, however, have evolved over time. For example, the report mentions increasing the nickel content used in cathode materials to reduce the amount of cobalt.
“NMC 111 (equal parts Ni, Mn, Co) has been replaced by NMC 532 and NMC 622, the use of NMC 811 is increasing, and major cathode manufacturers are aiming to go to 90+% nickel in NMC and NCA,” he said. dossier shows. “This is driven by the desire to reduce cobalt which is expensive and can cause problems, as well as to increase the efficiency and the amount of energy as much as possible. The challenges remain in ensuring the safety and longevity of these materials.”
In the view of the market analyst, while NMC and NCA cathodes will remain important, especially in Europe and North America, the pressure seen on battery prices through 2021 and 2022, and the possibility of disruption of supply in the future, will continue to pressure EV manufacturers and. battery manufacturers to rethink ideas. Examples are Tesla, Volkswagen, Ford, and Stellantis, who have outlined plans to use low-cost LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cathodes in some mass-market or low-cost car segments.
“LFP has already regained market share in the last two years due to retaking EV market share in China in particular. IDTechEx expects LFP’s share of the Li-ion market (by GWh) to increase over the next decade.”
The report also predicts that LFP manufacturing capacity will grow at a CAGR of ~31% over the next five years, while NMC and NCA manufacturing capacity is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~19%.
“This growth in LFP will be driven by downward pressure on the costs of electric vehicle batteries and battery storage systems. Although LFP is already well suited for stationary, electric vehicle applications, where electrical power remains an important metric, technological innovations can help reduce its lower power consumption compared to NMC/NCA and make LFP an even more attractive proposition,” the report says. “These improvements can come from the use of silicon anodes, cell-to-pack designs, or other efficient drains.”
The problem IDTechEx sees with the push to reduce reliance on cobalt and nickel by switching to LFP is that the reliance on China is growing, as the majority of LFP production is coming from domestic Chinese companies with few plans to produce LFP abroad. The world.
Other options
The market researcher notes that in addition to “traditional” cathode chemistries, high manganese cathodes have begun to gain attention, with South Korea’s EcoPro BM and Belgium’s Umicore joining BASF in stating their intention to sell high manganese cathodes.
“The development of these cathodes is also driven by the desire to reduce costs, but they also benefit from allowing power parity at NMC/NCA. Voltage fade and low cycle life remain significant barriers to adoption,” the whitepaper reads.
LNMO (Lithium Nickel Manganese Oxide) cathodes, which are cobalt-free and high-voltage, can also enter the race as they offer lower costs and opportunities to improve the performance of battery pack designs.
These cathodes are considered to be able to reduce lithium consumption by having a lower kg/kWh lithium intensity compared to other cathodes, which can be very important if supply constraints occur and manufacturers are forced to find ways to reduce the impact of high lithium prices.
The issue with LNMOs is that, like high-manganese cathodes, cycle life, as well as the need for a stable electrolyte, remain significant obstacles.
“Finally, IDTechEx estimates that NMC, NCA, and LFP will remain the leading cathode materials used until 2033, with the choice of materials determined by the trade-off between price, performance, suitability for use, and availability,” the dossier. it says.
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